Stock Market & Tariffs
January and February saw stellar sales driven by record highs in the Nasdaq and “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks. However, the market has since corrected around 10% amid heightened tariff policies and looming uncertainty. Although there was a minor rebound, major indices remain down roughly 6–10% year-to-date and the S&P and Nasdaq just closed out their worst quarters since 2022. Many prospective homebuyers planning to use appreciated stock portfolios to purchase have been caught off guard by this volatility.
Consumer Confidence Takes a Hit
Consumer sentiment slid another 11% this month (now down 22% from December), with declines across all demographic groups. Year-ahead inflation expectations have also ticked up to 4.9%—the highest reading since November 2022. Additionally, recent remarks from the president about a “possible period of transition” spooked markets, pushing searches on “recession” to near-peak popularity over the last 90 days.
What This Means for Real Estate
Because the Bay Area housing market often lags stock market performance by two to three weeks, we may soon see softer demand and fewer offers. Even so, single-family homes in the $1–3 million range (our local “entry level”) will likely remain resilient, since many buyers in that price range have already liquidated their positions and remain keen to purchase.